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Fed rate cut by...?

🏁 The race

December Meeting22%

Yes 22%No 79%

October Meeting13%

Yes 13%No 87%

September Meeting5%

Yes 5%No 95%

July Meeting1%

Yes 1%No 99%

June Meeting0%

✗ didn't

April Meeting0%

✗ didn't

January Meeting0%

✗ didn't

March Meeting0%

✗ didn't

📈 The story so far — December Meeting

22%

this happensit doesn't

📜 How this resolves▾

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcomes are resolved by Polymarket (UMA oracle). Papermarket mirrors the official resolution.

$2.7m predicted all-time · $4.0k today · ends Jun 17, 2026